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Cred's score reflects an account's ability to fulfill obligations relative to the whole population of accounts.
Cred's score is informed by, and incorporates "probability of default" but it is not a direct probability. Rather it reflects the distribution of "probaliity of default" across the population of accounts. An Excellent Cred Score means a lower probability of loan default relative to others, whereas a Low Cred Score implies a higher probability of loan default relative to others.